November 2nd Is All About 3 States.

biden

Now that we’re into June, all of a sudden November 2nd begins to loom. And when all is said and done, when all the smoke finally clears, there’s only one question that needs to be asked: How does Joe Biden keep the states who voted blue in 2016 in his column again, and how does he put three states back in his column who swung red in 2016?

These states are Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Together they count for 46 electoral votes. Add that number to the votes that HRC got in 2016 and you win. You don’t even need Ohio or Florida, two other states that flipped from blue to red. You don’t even need some other red states like Texas or Arizona where the liberal media claims that Joe is even or ahead. Three crummy states – that’s all you need.

Trump spent $4.80 for every vote he got. Hillary spent $9.71 per vote.  How did Hillary lose the entire Presidential election because she couldn’t find 78,000 more votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which would have put her over the top?

Okay. Enough whining about the Hillary’s lousy 2016 campaign. Let’s try and figure out what needs to happen in those three states later this year.  In Wisconsin, Fox says that Biden’s out in front 49 to 40. In Michigan, Fox says that Joe’s up 49-41 but when you combine this poll with several others, Joe’s margin is around 4 points. As for Pennsylvania, again Joe is up by 4 points with Fox saying that he’s 8 points ahead. Let’s not forget that HRC had the same poll numbers in these three states at the same time in 2016.

In 2012, Jill Stein got 50,903 votes in those three states. In 2016, Stein racked up 132,476 votes. In other words, Stein pulled nearly three times as many votes in 2016 as she did in 2012. In Pennsylvania, Stein got 21,341 votes in 2012, she received 49,941 in 2016, more than double her 2012 vote. Wisconsin was the same thing. Stein got 7,665 votes in 2012, her number was 31,072 in 2016, a quadrupling of her 2012 vote! In Michigan, Stein got 51,463 votes in 2016, her 2012 Michigan total was 21,897.

Why am I looking at Stein?  Because there continues to be talk about how some of Bernie’s supporters are disappointed in Joe and may decide not to vote or do some kind of protest vote. How can anyone believe that votes for the Green Party aren’t a protest against the ticket chosen by the Democratic Party for the national race?

Now let’s go back to those three swing states again. Together, Trump pulled 6,655,560 votes, HRC ended up with 6,577,816, a difference  of 77,744 or .005% of the red and blue votes. How many votes went green in those three states? Stein got 132,476. If Hillary’s campaign had figured out a way to take slightly more than half the votes that Stein received and put them into the blue column, she would be President today.

One more point about the numbers in these three states. In 2012, Obama got 7,175,828 votes out of MI, WI and PA, Romney got 6,203,656.  Trump pulled roughly 300,000 more votes from those states in 2016 than Romney received in 2012. Hillary’s 2016 three-state total was 600,000 less than what Obama got in 2012. For all the talk about how Trump found all kinds of GOP votes in 2016 that weren’t there before, the truth is that Hillary lost a lot more Democratic votes which had been there before. Hillary didn’t need Stein’s votes to win the Presidential race. She needed votes from people who stayed home.

I can’t be the only person out there who knows what these numbers mean. I’m sure that Brad Parscale has memorized them and repeats them to himself every night before going to bed. The bottom line is that Joe doesn’t need to persuade all these Republican suburban women who are allegedly running from Trump to come over to the other side. He just needs to get the Democrats who stayed home in 2016 to come out for him.

 

 

 

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