Do The Polls Matter? Let’s Hope So.

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So now we are less than a week away from the Dog Days of Summer, which is when I start thinking about two things: a) the books I want to read at the beach, and, b) the things I should do now but I’ll do them when I get back after Labor Day.

As to the first item, that lowlife Bolton’s book is supposed to ship this week. In fact, Amazon tells me that my copy  is supposed to arrive between July 7th and July 17th. The good news is that Mary Trump’s book, which I ordered as soon as I heard that a Surrogate Court judge in New York told Trump’s lawyer to try his luck in State Supreme Court, is supposed to get to me by July 28th. So at least my Summer reading plans are all set.

As for doing after Labor Day what I should be doing now, I really can’t think of anything that I have left undone ever since I decided in May to send Joe $100 a week which will get me up to the magic $2,800 mark before the bell tolls on November 3rd.

Unfortunately, as much as I think that Joe has been running a perfect campaign, I am also seeing some headlines about the election that I really don’t like. And chief among those stories that is creating a little dread, is the story about the New York Times/Siena poll which had Joe taking a commanding lead.

Here’s the headline, word for word: “In Poll, Trump Falls Far Behind Biden in Six Key Battleground States.” The states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina, with the gap running between 6 points in Florida and  11 points in Michigan and Wisconsin. These are very impressive numbers but there’s only one, little problem. They may not be right.

According to 270ToWin, which aggregates the NYT/Siena poll with other polls, Joe leads in North Carolina by 4, his lead in Pennsylvania is 7, ditto in Florida, in Arizona he’s ahead by 6. This website is aggregating all the polls, but the bottom line is that in every battleground state, Joe’s margin is 3 or 4 points less than what the NYT/Siena poll shows.

A similar tightening occurs when we look at the aggregate poll numbers posted by RCP. On this website, Biden’s up by 8 in Michigan, the gap in Pennsylvania is 10, in Arizona it’s only 4. On the other hand, and this may be an especially important point, Joe is now tied with Trump in Ohio, a state that everyone on our side of the fence gave up after 2016.

All that said and done, the problem which is much more the reason why my sense of doom and gloom about another four years of you-know-who has not yet completely disappeared, is the large number of voters in every swing state who still might prefer to eat dog shit with cut glass instead of chicken on November 3rd.  I thank my friend David Sedaris again.

Every swing state that has Joe up by at least 7 points, still has at least 10% of their voters saying they will vote for someone named ‘other’ instead of voting for Biden or Trump. In some states, the ‘other’ number posted by the NYT/Siena poll is as high as 13 percent. How seriously can we take a ‘nationally-representative’ poll when the pollster gets someone not yet having made up their mind on every 7th call?

Maybe I’m just being overly cautious. Maybe I’m just somewhat scarred by what happened in 2016. But as my sister reminded me today, Hillary never had a double-digit lead in any national poll, particularly going into the last several months. So when the dog-shit voters in 2016 began deciding that dog-shit is what they really wanted to eat, it wasn’t like Trump needed to wheel out so many plates of dog-shit food.

Let’s just hope that Trump doesn’t have to open any cans of dog-shit this time around.

 

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