Here’s the question: If Joe wins in November, what do I write about for the next four years? Trump has become such an easy target that I never lack for anything to say. First there was the Tulsa rally with the empty seats. Then there was the New Hampshire rally which didn’t come off because of a storm that never was. Now he’s telling Americans that a TV game-show host knows more about medicine than the head of infectious disease at the CDC. This guy just can’t stop.
Of course if you were looking at the poll numbers that he’s looking at, you might say things that are just as crazy and just as dumb. And to help explain the complete and total aversion to reality being exhibited on a daily, if not hourly by Trump, I am going each week to present a little graphic which shows just how far into the toilet his campaign appears to have sunk.
This graphic is based on an aggregate of the national aggregate numbers collected by three websites: 270toWin, Nate Silver’s 538 and RealClearPolitics. The polls aggregated include all the national polling outfits for the overall race, along with state polling in just about every state. Here’ a general perspective on how the pollsters try to develop lists and techniques that are predictive to a fairly decent degree, but when all is said and done, the key differential is usually the distinction made between ‘registered’ as opposed to ‘likely’ voters, with the latter usually seen as somewhat more accurate for determining the end result.
In the RCP national tracking poll, which beings in September, 2019, Trump has never gone 45.6%, Bide has never fallen below 47%. Right now Biden has a 9-point lead, 49 to 40. Silver has the exact, same gap between the two candidates, with Biden at the magic 50% mark. 270toWin doesn’t do a national tracking poll. Instead, they do a daily update of state-level polls, which right now has Biden with 272 Electoral votes from states rated ‘safe,’ ‘likely’ and ‘lean.’
What does Trump have to do to keep Joe from hitting the magic 270 mark and 151 EV’s in the ‘in play’ states whose EV total right stands today at 194? He just has to keep all of the ‘safe,’ ’likely’ and ‘lean’ states in his column that he has right now, plus add all every one of the 11 current ’in play’ states. Right now, Biden is even or leading in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida,and Arizona. Texas, believe it or not, is a dead heat. If Joe wins any of those states, for Trump it’s bye-bye American pie.
So going forward, we need to do two things: 1). If you live in a state where Biden has the lead, make sure that everyone you know votes early to avoid long waiting lines on November 3rd. 2). If you live in a state that’s in play, stay in touch with the Biden campaign and do whatever you can do to keep things in good shape.
Here’s where the battle will be joined. And I’m going to update the numbers every week. And if you think you can afford to ignore these numbers and just hope for the best, I’ll remind you again that the President of the United States believes you should take medical guidance about the virus from a talk-show host.
It’s our fault. We elected him once. Let’s not make the same mistake twice, okay?