Maybe The Polls Are ‘Fake News.’

aggregate trend

Back in March, when Trump declared himself to be a ‘wartime President,’ I knew he was going to fail.  And why did I know it? Because after Pearl Harbor, we hated the Japanese. After Korea, we hated the Red Chinese. After Viet Nam, we hated the North Vietnamese. Whom do we hate this time around?

Want to hate the Chinese? Go right ahead.  Whaddaya going to do? To quote Curtis LeMay, bomb ‘em back to the Stone Age? Want to hate the Democrats and Joe Biden?  Go right ahead. The virus happens to be spreading quickest in mostly red states.

Last night I watched Chris Wallace interview Trump and even though Wallace tried on several occasions to politely tell the President that he was saying things that were simply wrong, Trump plunged on and on. The virus was ‘under control’ except for a few hot spots; he knew a lot more about the virus than Fasci and the other scientific knot-heads; Biden was an idiot being manipulated by radicals in the Deep State; and in case you didn’t know it, the polls were nothing more than “fake news.”

Talking about the polls, here’s my weekly analysis of election polls in the ‘must-win’ states:

state polls july 20

              I have removed two states from last week’s list because the polls are either long out of date or make no sense. As to the above numbers, note that Biden is almost at the 50-mark in Florida and PA. Also note that the dog-shit number is beginning to go under 10 in most states:

State Biden Trump Dog-shit
Nevada 48 44  8
Arizona 47.8 45 7.2
Texas 45 45 10
Arkansas 45 47   8
Iowa 44 46 10
Ohio 44 44 12
Georgia 45 48   7
Florida 49 42   9
N. Carolina 47 45   8
Alaska 47 48   5
Pennsylvania 49 47   4
Michigan 48 40  12


But note something else, which is that the gap between Biden and Trump in all the swing states is the same or less than it was last week. And by the way, on July 7th, according to Nate Silver, Biden had a 9.6 margin in the aggregate national poll, as of today it is 8.8.

I would like to think that Trump can’t overcome Biden’s lead in the next 105 days. But my experience this past weekend creates some doubt in my mind. What happened is that we drove around parts of New York State (Columbia County) and parts of New Hampshire (Cheshire County), both counties bordering Massachusetts, which is my state. Biden’s up by 25 points in New York State and holds a 4-point lead in New Hampshire, although there hasn’t been a serious poll in that state since mid-June.

We probably drove through 12 – 15 towns, some are mostly weekend retreats from da city, others are largely family farms with an occasional small factory thrown in. Know what I didn’t see? Anyone wearing masks. Of the 100 to 150 people I saw standing around in these towns, I’m willing to bet that less than 20 were wearing masks. And I’m not talking about people who were standing by themselves. I’m talking about groups of adults, none of whom seemed to be social distancing themselves from anyone else.

I enjoyed being in my car because the air-conditioning works very well. But I didn’t enjoy seeing how many people in these towns didn’t seem the slightest bit worried about Corona-19 at all. So maybe Trump isn’t so wrong when he says the polls are “fake news.” A town like Swanzey, New Hampshire is a long way away from Seattle, Miami, or New York. But every vote in Swanzey counts as much as a vote anywhere else.




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