I’m sick and tired of Covid-19 and I’m just as sick and tired of Donald Trump. Unfortunately, to bring the former problem under control, we really need to get rid of Trump. The good news on that score, fortunately, is that the latter problem seems to be in the process of being handled by Trump himself. For all the talk about a new campaign direction, a big advertising blitz and of course the huge turnout at the rally at his Bedminster club, the bottom line is that the poll numbers have remained remarkably steady over the last week.
First the aggregate number. On July 22nd, Joe dropped down underneath 50% for the first time since June 12th. He just went back over 50% again and his lead is back to 8.3 – 50.1% versus 41.9%. Trump hasn’t been above 43% since the beginning of June, Biden has been at 48% or above since the beginning of March.
One more point about the aggregate national poll, if only because every time I think about the polls in 2016 I get spooked. On August 7, 2016 Hillary had a 7.5-point lead over Trump. This date also happened to be when the Democratic National Convention wrapped up. The next day she started to slip and by August 10th her lead had dwindled to less than 6 points. On April 12, Joe had a 3.4-point lead which was at 6 points on May 1st and has never been less than 7.5 points since that day.
Now let’s look at the crucial swing-state races, where at the moment Joe has 207 electoral votes locked up from the Communist states. Here’s how the current poll numbers from the 12 states whose voters will decide what happens on November 3rd:
Note that Joe has reached or is about to reach the coveted 50% mark in 5 of the 12 in-play states. Note that he is also tied or leading in 9 of those states. In order to get from the 207 Communist EV’s to the 270 that gets him over the top, Joe only needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and one other state. Even New Hampshire with its 4 measly EV’s gets him where he wants to go.
On the other hand, our wartime leader can only count right now on 128 EV’s from the red, or what Al Franken used to call, the ‘dumb’ states. So to continue his effort to make American great again, or be a wartime leader, or whatever this made-for-video clown pretends to be, he has to find 142 out of the 189 EV’s that appear to be up for grabs. Right now, he has 1-point leads in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa, which totals 60 EV’s. Trump with a 1-point lead in Texas?
Here’s the latest attempt by the Trump campaign to throw a life preserver into the water before their candidate sinks out of sight: “three months is a lifetime in politics, the presidency is a powerful platform and Biden will eventually have to face the spotlight of scrutiny.” This is from Howard Kurtz, who used to write about media for the Washington Post, but now spiels for Fox. I love how he says that Biden will have to face scrutiny, as if Trump and his toadies haven’t said something every hour of every day about Joe’s dementia, Joe’s crooked son, Joe’s financial ties to the Chinese thugs, so forth and so on.
Meanwhile, none of those attacks have seemed to gain Trump-o any traction at all. But that doesn’t mean the election is over and done. Please don’t sit back and take yourself out of the game. Please stay involved.