Next week and the week after that, I’m going to skip publishing a report on how the polls look in the in-play states for the simple reason that I don’t trust any poll about anything conducted the last week of August when everyone is thinking about resuming whatever they are planning to resume after Labor Day. And the fact that the situation in schools is still unclear only makes what people will be thinking about next week even more difficult to understand.
So our next report will appear on Monday, September 7th, which will not only be Labor Day so whatever you needed to do before Labor Day is either done or not done; plus, the polls beginning in September will also take into account the ‘bounce’ that candidates get from their conventions, which start this week.
That being said, the poll results currently show Joe increasing his lead bit-by-bit in the in-play states, with the current numbers looking like this:
Note that Joe is at or near 50% in 7 seven states; last week it was 1 state. Note he has hit the 50% in 3 states, last week it was 1 state. Joe’s overall average in the 12 in-play states is 48.4, our wartime President’s average is 44.8. Joe has pulled even or slightly ahead in Ohio, he’s 2 points behind in Texas, 1.4 points behind in Iowa – he doesn’t need either state. Assuming Joe wins all the Communist states, he only needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to put him and Kam over the top. Except for Pennsylvania, where’s he’s 6 points ahead, Joe’s ahead by 8 points in the other 3 must-win states.
Joe’s even up by a point in North Carolina, which a month ago, nobody thought he could win. But maybe an 8-point lead at this moment doesn’t mean that Joe is ahead. Last week our Commander-in-Chief told the sycophantic New York Post that because of crime and high taxes, his campaign was going to put New York “into play.” After my sister tipped me off to this loony statement I checked the polls and Trump is only behind in New York by 25 points – 63% to 38%. New York’ in play – yea, right.
Now here’s the real news. For the 12 in-play states, the Sedaris Dog-shit vote is now down to an average of 7.8. In New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, it’s down to 5.5. In those two states, every, single voter could make up their minds to vote for Trump between now and November 3rd, and he still couldn’t win. The dog-shit vote in Michigan and Wisconsin is somewhat larger, but unless 90% of the dog shits went for Mister Dog Shit himself, he couldn’t carry either of those states on November 3rd.
Incidentally, with the exception of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all have no-excuse, absentee voting. In other words, voting by mail. Now you know why Trump is making those claims about mail-in voting equals voting fraud. I love how he is now blaming Amazon for financial losses suffered by the Post Office; pretty soon he’ll be claiming that Amazon is also spreading the virus into all 50 states.
I can’t recall one, single day in the last 3 ½ years when Trump didn’t blame someone for something. And if this guy thinks that blaming anyone other than himself for not taking the Cobvid-19 virus seriously, is what a ‘wartime President’ does when the country is under attack, then all I can say is that he wouldn’t know how to be a ‘wartime leader’ any better than he knew how to run an airline or start a new football league.
The only problem with any political poll is what w call the ‘black swan’ effect, namely, that no matter how many times we think we know how people are going to do something, there’s always a chance they’ll do it differently the next time out.
Which is why good poll news to the contrary, just remember what Al Capone said: Vote Early, Vote Often.