So now that the conventions are finished, we can begin to figure out which candidate, if either, got a ‘bump’ from their shindig last month. And it looks like Trump pulled himself slightly closer to Joe in the aggregate national polls, but we should put the emphasis on the word ‘slightly.’
As of the morning of August 17th, which was the day the Democrats opened their big deal, Joe was at 51.2% and Trump at 42.8%, a gap of 8,4. As of this morning, Joe was at 50.3% and Trump at 43.2%, a gap of 7.1. So Joe is still at the magic 50 mark, although he’s dropped one point; Trump has moved up by 3/10ths of 1 percent. Big deal.
Now let’s look at the ‘battleground’ states. As of yesterday, the numbers run like this:
How much have these numbers changed since August 17? Joe’s average for all 12 swing states was 48.41 back then, now it’s 48.15. Trump was at 44.82 on August 17, now he’s at 45.08. Basically the same. Joe continues to hold the lead in 7 states, in none of those states has his lead changed to any real degree. And by the way, in Wisconsin, where Trump spent some time yesterday making sure that everyone knows he’s strongly pro-cop, with all the looting, the crime, the violence, the this and the that, Joe’s number went from 49.1 to 49.9.
Now here’s the second most important piece of news. In the 12 swing states, today’s Sedaris dogshit vote is exactly what it was on August 17th, namely, 6.8% of everyone polled still can’t make up their mind as to how they are going to vote. Incidentally, the ‘hidden’ vote is still not showing up in a large numbers of Libertarian voters who will, at the last minute, switch from Jorgenson to Trump, the way more than half of them switched from Johnson to Trump in 2016. In Wisconsin, the latest poll gives Jorgenson 3%, and even if all of them moved from Jorgenson to Trump, he still wouldn’t win the Wisconsin vote.
Now here’s the most important piece of news. Ready? Joe raised $300 million in August – Trump raised $90 million. In total fundraising, Biden has now pulled ahead of Trump by more than $100 million bucks. That’s not chopped liver folks – that’s serious dough. What it means is that Joe can basically spend whatever he wants to spend in critical media markets. And in a campaign that will be primarily fought via the media thanks to Covid-19, having that kind of money in the piggy bank is something else again.
As of yesterday, Trump’s campaign was sitting on $120,515,990, Joe had $98,801,880 lying around. When the FEC website gets updated tomorrow or the next day, Trump will have about $200 million to spend minus what he spent this month, Joe will have twice that amount. Twice. All year long I kept hearing about the tremendous cash advantage that Trump had over all the Democrats because he had spent so much time raising money over the last four years. Gone baby, gone.
If Fox News wasn’t the White House media operation, right now Trump would have no campaign at all. You don’t motivate voters by sitting in a room with bunch of cops in Kenosha or some FEMA workers in Louisiana. Know how much money Trump is going to spend on ads this week? Try $1.6 million. Joe has bought more than $18 million on ads for the same period of time.
Next week we get Michael Cohen’s book, the following week the tell-all book by Bob Woodward appears. I’m ready to take the short odds right now that Joe will plaster Trump in their September 29 debate. Even a completely demented guy, which he isn’t, by the way, can be trained to sit there and repeat “one thousand deaths every day.”