Okay guys, the Summer’s over on Tuesday and the election gets down to brass tacks. So here’s where things now stand.
As of today, Joe is leading in the aggregate national poll by 50.4% to 43%, numbers for both candidates that have been basically unchanged for the last week. On this same date in 2016, Hillary was at 41.3%, Trump at 39.2%. Not only was the aggregate poll much closer in 2016 than today, but the all-important Sedaris dog-shit number was 19.5%. Right now the national undecided number is 6.6%. If Trump picks up every, single dog-shit voter between now and November 3rd, he would still lose the popular vote.
There’s only one little problem. Trump lost the popular vote by 3% of total votes cast in 2016 and we’ve still been cursed with him for the last 4 years. So let’s drill down and look at the state-level voting, because once again the election will be decided by turnout and voter decisions in a handful of states.
How small is that handful? Try three – Michigan, Wisconsin and most important, PA. Here’s how the numbers work out. Joe has 21 states in his pocket which together count for 227 electoral votes. These are the states that voted for Hillary in 2016, and with the exception of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada, Hillary had a double-digit advantage in each of those states. Right now in the three states that went single-digit blue in 2016, Minnesota and Nevada are showing 6+ gaps in favor of Joe, in New Hampshire it’s 8.2%. Only in Nevada is Joe running under 50%.
The three states whose outcomes will determine whether or not we have Trump around for another four years count 46 electoral votes. Which gets Joe to 273 EV’s. That’s the end of that. Right now, Joe’s ahead in all 3 states – 6.6% in Michigan, 7.2% in Wisconsin and 4.5% in PA. There’s only one little problem with these numbers, however. At this point in 2016, Hillary was ahead in those three same states. In Michigan, Hillary was up by 5%, in Wisconsin, the gap was 5%, the gap was 9% in PA.
Right now Joe is leading in those three states by the same margin, more or less, that Hillary enjoyed following Labor Day in 2016. So how did Trump manage to pull it out?
I posted a column back on August 30 which showed that Trump pulled his last-minute surge because Libertarians who had declared themselves for Johnson, decided at the last minute not to waste their vote and switched to Trump. In this year’s pre-election polls, the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, is only getting 2%-3%, which doesn’t give Trump any kind of boost even if every, single Libertarian goes into the booth and votes GOP.
In 2012, Obama got 7,175,828 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and PA, the total for Hillary in 2016 was 6,577,816. Wow! Blue votes decreased by 8%. If Hillary had received the same number of votes in 2016 that Obama got in 2012, Trump would have spent the last 4 years tweeting to himself.
Look what happened in PA. Obama got 2,990,274 votes in 2012, HRC got 2,926,441 votes in 2016. How many votes did Trump get in 2016? Try 2,970,733. If Hillary had received the exact same number of votes in 2016 that Obama pulled out in 2012, she would have won PA by 82,000 votes. In Michigan, if she had garnered Obama’s 2,564,569 total, she would have swamped Trump instead of losing those all-important 16 EV’s by a pathetic 10,000 votes.
Trump has lost on re-opening schools; he’s lost the mail-in vote issue as well. We now have a new scandal involving what he said or didn’t say when he went to Europe in 2018. What’s left? Race. And I guarantee he will run the most disgusting, racist campaign of all time.
Joe was absolutely spot on when he said that you’re not Black if you voted for Trump. Let’s make sure he can say the same thing after November 3rd about voters who are White.
GET THE F#CK OUT THERE AND VOTE!!!