Is Trump Still Running For President?

              So now that the conventions are finished, we can begin to figure out which candidate, if either, got a ‘bump’ from their shindig last month. And it looks like Trump pulled himself slightly closer to Joe in the aggregate national polls, but we should put the emphasis on the word ‘slightly.’

              As of the morning of August 17th, which was the day the Democrats opened their big deal, Joe was at 51.2% and Trump at 42.8%, a gap of 8,4. As of this morning, Joe was at 50.3% and Trump at 43.2%, a gap of 7.1. So Joe is still at the magic 50 mark, although he’s dropped one point; Trump has moved up by 3/10ths of 1 percent. Big deal.

              Now let’s look at the ‘battleground’ states. As of yesterday, the numbers run like this:

              How much have these numbers changed since August 17? Joe’s average for all 12 swing states was 48.41 back then, now it’s 48.15. Trump was at 44.82 on August 17, now he’s at 45.08. Basically the same. Joe continues to hold the lead in 7 states, in none of those states has his lead changed to any real degree. And by the way, in Wisconsin, where Trump spent some time yesterday making sure that everyone knows he’s strongly pro-cop, with all the looting, the crime, the violence, the this and the that, Joe’s number went from 49.1 to 49.9.

              Now here’s the second most important piece of news. In the 12 swing states, today’s Sedaris dogshit vote is exactly what it was on August 17th, namely, 6.8% of everyone polled still can’t make up their mind as to how they are going to vote. Incidentally, the ‘hidden’ vote is still not showing up in a large numbers of Libertarian voters who will, at the last minute, switch from Jorgenson to Trump, the way more than half of them switched from Johnson to Trump in 2016.  In Wisconsin, the latest poll gives Jorgenson 3%, and even if all of them moved from Jorgenson to Trump, he still wouldn’t win the Wisconsin vote.

              Now here’s the most important piece of news. Ready? Joe raised $300 million in August – Trump raised $90 million. In total fundraising, Biden has now pulled ahead of Trump by more than $100 million bucks. That’s not chopped liver folks – that’s serious dough. What it means is that Joe can basically spend whatever he wants to spend in critical media markets. And in a campaign that will be primarily fought via the media thanks to Covid-19, having that kind of money in the piggy bank is something else again.

              As of yesterday, Trump’s campaign was sitting on $120,515,990, Joe had $98,801,880 lying around. When the FEC website gets updated tomorrow or the next day, Trump will have about $200 million to spend minus what he spent this month, Joe will have twice that amount. Twice. All year long I kept hearing about the tremendous cash advantage that Trump had over all the Democrats because he had spent so much time raising money over the last four years. Gone baby, gone.

              If Fox News wasn’t the White House media operation, right now Trump would have no campaign at all. You don’t motivate voters by sitting in a room with  bunch of cops in Kenosha or some FEMA workers in Louisiana. Know how much money Trump is going to spend on ads this week? Try $1.6 million. Joe has bought more than $18 million on ads for the same period of time.

          Next week we get Michael Cohen’s book, the following week the tell-all book by Bob Woodward appears.  I’m ready to take the short odds right now that Joe will plaster Trump in their September 29 debate. Even a completely demented guy, which he isn’t, by the way, can be trained to sit there and repeat “one thousand deaths every day.”

What Happened To Trump’s Big ‘Base?’

              I would love to know how many people watch Trump’s so-called ‘briefings’ every day. First of all, he has nothing to say. Second, he just repeats the same lies and insults again and again. If this is how his new campaign manager has re-set his floundering campaign, as my grandfather would say, oy zuch en vay, which basically means you can stick it you know where.

              Now that we are into the fifth, straight month in which Biden continues to hold the same, 8-point lead, I think it’s safe to ask the inevitable question which is this: Why does anyone think that Trump can win again? Why may sound really stupid until and unless you take a long, hard look at the numbers from 2016. And what those numbers really show is that Trump won the 2016 election by a margin so slight that the idea of a big, devoted ‘base’ ready to support him again is a big, fat, joke – almost as fat as his rear end.

              Trump became #45 because he got 306 electoral votes. The only two Presidential elections in the past hundred years where the winner received fewer electoral votes was Bush in 2000 and Carter in 1976. But Carter won the popular vote in 1976 and Bush lost the popular vote by less than 500,000 votes. Trump lost the 2016 popular number by 3 million votes.

              Now let’s look at the so-called ‘swing’ of blue to red states. In fact, what really got Trump into the White House were the results from three states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA. The last time these states voted red was in 1988. Together, those 3 reliably-blue states gave Clinton 6,577,816 votes, Trump got 6,655,560, a difference of 77,744 votes, a difference of one-half of one percent of all the votes cast in those three states.

              Now you would think that someone who came into office with such a razor-thin margin would realize right from the git-go that his term of office would be shaped by how well he could convince a real majority of Americans that he understood why they didn’t want him around. To the contrary, what Trump has done for the last four years minus three months is to pretend that his election heralded not only the rebirth of America, but the beginnings of a new ‘movement’ that has never been seen before.

              This new ‘movement’ is so big and strong that they couldn’t even turn out a full house at Trump’s June rally in Tulsa, and had to postpone his New Hampshire rally in early July, an event, by the way, that his campaign said would be ‘re-scheduled’ for sometime in the following two weeks.

Know what the great campaigner did yesterday? He held a meeting in the White House to announce yet another Executive Order requiring that the federal government always hire Americans first. Here is what he said: “I’m signing an executive order to ensure that the federal government lives by a very simple rule: Hire American. We’ve been doing it at a level that hasn’t been done maybe ever.”

              Note the word ‘maybe.’ The truth is that his claim about hiring Americans first for government jobs was a statement he made up right there and then. So he inserted the word ‘maybe’ just to make sure that when someone does a quick fact-check and discovers that he was wrong, his silly, little press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, doesn’t have to admit that he lied.

              Want a better one? Trump is now defending his non-response to the Covid crisis by saying that we have ‘better numbers’ than anywhere else. Our per-capita GDP happens to be four times higher than the rest of the world. And Trump is comparing our Covid response to countries whose economies produce a fraction of the goods and services that we enjoy?

              That’s me (above) putting the Biden sign on my front door. If Trump wants to continue using the most foul, racist narrative to appeal to his so-called base, let him go right ahead. Just remember, we only need three states.

Where’s The Trump Campaign?

              Last Friday, the President of the United States, a.k.a. Donald Trump, flew down to Florida to meet with a group of cops and get their endorsement for his re-election campaign. The cops are probably the only people in the whole country who are willing to even meet with Trump these days, never mind support his attempt to take another four-year White House lease.

              The picture above is Air Force 1 landing at the Tampa airport and as you can see, there was a large crowd waiting for the nation’s Chief Executive to come bounding down the stairs.

There’s only one little problem.  The above picture is what Trump would have posted on his Twitter except that a photographer got a shot of the entire crowd:

              And here’s a photograph of the thousands of Trump fans who couldn’t squeeze into the airport but were happy and willing to greet their beloved President as he came outside:

              This is how Trump described his trip to Florida in a tweet: ”My visits last week to Texas and Frorida had massive numbers of cheering people gathered along the roads and highways, thousands and thousands, even bigger (by far) than the crowds of 2016. Saw no Biden supporters, and yet some in the Fake News said it was an equal number. Sad!” And don’t think for one second that the way he spelled Florida was a mistake. It’s just another example of how racism (in this case against Asians) permeates his campaign. He really is a POS.

              If the ‘Chinese flu’ had never arrived, right now Trump would be holding one of his Nuremburg-style rallies every day. Instead, he spent the weekend playing golf, something he has done more than 270 times since he was inaugurated in 2017. That’s only an average of one golf outing every five days. Just like Ike. Hey – that’s a new slogan for Trump. Just like Ike.

              Back to the polls. Here’s how the swing-state numbers look today: 

              There really has been no change from last week. Note that Joe has his largest leads in the states where he is at or just about at 50 percent (FL, WI, MI, PA, and NH.)  If he wins those 5 states along with all the Commie-Socialist states, he’s well past 300 electoral votes. So that’s the good news today. And here’s some more good news.

              Back at the end of March when the Democratic primaries were basically finished and done, according to the Federal Election Commission, Biden had $26.3 million on hand, Trump’s campaign was sitting on almost $100 million bucks.  As of June 30, Trump had $113 million in the bank, Joe had $108 million waiting to be spent. Biden raised $63 million in June, Trump raised $55 million, but Trump’s campaign spent $50 million that same month, Joe’s gang spent $36 million and change. When you’re raising less and spending more and your numbers don’t improve, sending out a completely phony tweet about the ‘massive’ crowds in Florida won’t help you one bit.

              Today the Trump bunch resumed their TV advertising campaign by placing an ad in four swing states: AZ, FL, GA, and NC.  They had paused their ads for two weeks so that the new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, could re-evaluate their messaging and come up with a new and more powerful ad. So what’s the message this time around? That Biden is a ‘tool’ of the ‘radical Left’ who will triple your taxes, defund the police, and lead the country down to radical Socialism or worse.

              This advertising blitz doesn’t mention the corona virus, not once. But Trump  mentioned it on Twitter this morning when he criticized his own virus expert, Deborah Birx. I think Trump is smart by pretending that the Covid-19 emergency won’t hurt his campaign. After all, three out of ten Americans still believe that what he says about the virus is true. So if 30% are willing to give this liar and racist MF any kind of credibility at all, add to that group the Sedaris 10% dog-shit vote and maybe you’re still in the game.

              Don’t relax, don’t think it’s done. It’s not done and this is a very serious time.

Trump’s Numbers Are Going From Bad To Worse

              Back in 1937 they held a special election in the 10th Congressional District of Texas which at that time covered Austin and much of the hill country that covers the South-Central part of the state. The Hill Country includes Gillespie County, and smack dab in the middle of the county is a town called Stonewall, which right now has around 500 residents, which has always been more or less the population of that place.

              One of the families that lived in Stonewall was the Johnson family. They had a boy named Lyndon who was a high school teacher, then borrowed some money from his wife’s family and got himself into the 10th CD race. The seat was open because the long-time Congressman, ‘Bucky’ Buchannon, had dropped dead in February. In those days, the only way that a Texas Congressman lost his seat in the House of Representatives was if he dropped dead.

              So here was ol’ Lyndon trying for the first time to get himself out of the dust of the Hill Country and make a name for hisself. There was only one problem. A week before the election, ‘ol Lyndon got together behind the Presbyterian Church with his buddies who were helping him out. And one of the assembled group had no choice but to deliver the bad news.

              “Lyndon,” he said to ol’ Lyndon, “you losin’ an’ you losin’ bad. If we don’ figure out sumpin’ that will get you ahead of that feller who’s beatin’ you, y’all goin’ t’be back teachin’ school agin.”

              There was silence. Nobody knew what to do. That is until ol’ Lyndon raised his head, smiled and said, “I got it! We’ll spread the rumor that he f**ks pigs!”

              “Awww Lyndon,” said one of his friends, “you know he don’t do that.”

              “Yea.” replied Lyndon, smiling and nodding his head up and down, “but we’ll get him to deny it.”

              As promised, here are the weekly stats on how Biden and Trump match up in the crucial swing states. And if the numbers continue to change the way they have changed in the last week, the only thing that Trump can do to reverse his disappearing campaign is to spread some kind of ‘he f**ks pigs’ around about ol’ Joe.

              What the Hell, it worked for ol’ Lyndon back in ’37 (that story was often retold by LBJ himself) so maybe it’ll work again. They’ve tried just about everything else, including that Joe’s demented, that he made corrupt deals for his son Hunter in China and the Ukraine. Why not spread the rumor that he f**ks pigs?

              That being said, here are the swing-state numbers as of today:

Note that Joe is now at or almost at the magic 50-mark in three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Last week he hadn’t yet hit any state at the 50-point mark. Note that Trump is slightly ahead in Iowa and they are basically tied in Texas. Last week, Trump was ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Arkansas. Note that Joe has pulled slightly ahead in Ohio. In other words, Joe has improved his numbers in just about every swing state and he’s ahead in 9 out of 12 swing states. Last week he was ahead in 6 out of 12 swing states.

But here’s the more important news. There is not one single swing state which still has a dog-shit (undecided) number above 9, and in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona, the dog-shit number is down to 6. If the dog-shit vote were to split evenly and nothing else were to change, joe would wind up with 135 additional electoral votes, which would give him 332 EV’s on election day.

Today Trump goes to Dallas for a meeting with some Black church and community leaders to talk about improving relations between the cops and the local folks. The discussion is being called (by the White House) “Transition to Greatness: Restoring, Rebuilding and Renewing.” Neither the DA, the sheriff or the police chief are planning to attend.

Hey, wait a minute. I thought we already were great. I thought that all we needed to do now was keep ourselves great. Frankly, I think Trump stands a better chance of reversing his political collapse if he spends less time talking about being great or becoming great and concentrates instead on whether or not Joe f**ks pigs.