I am astonished at how the mainstream (read: liberal) media continues to promote a totally incorrect narrative about the outcome of the 2016 election and has now produced one of their champion big-mouth spielers, Michael Moore, to promote the same nonsense again.
Yells The Guardian: “Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win. Film-maker says enthusiasm for president in swing states is ‘off the charts’ and urges everyone to commit to getting 100 people to vote.”
What is this rant based on? A single CNN poll released on August 17 which showed Biden leading Trump by only four points. Want to see the poll? It’s right here. And of course the moment Moore shot off his mouth, Trump immediately tweeted that ‘Mikey’ Moore was the man who really understood why he’s going to win again.
Remember how everyone was saying that the polls all got it wrong in 2016? They didn’t. They got it right. Completely right. The national aggregate polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by a margin of 3 points, which is exactly how the popular vote turned out. As for those swing states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin – that out of nowhere went for Trump, if anyone would have taken the trouble to look at state-level polls over the last several months, this is what they would have found.
They would have found that in all the states which went from blue to red in 2016, the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, was polling 7-8% of the pre-election vote. But when the votes were counted after the election took place, he didn’t get 4% in any swing state. In other words, half of the Libertarian voters who didn’t like Trump but really disliked Hillary in the weeks prior to the 2016 election decided right at the end that they didn’t want to waste their vote.
I may not know how to conduct a political poll, but I know how to add and subtract. If you take the pre-election Libertarian vote and then compare it to how the Libertarian Party actually fared in every swing state, the difference is what moved those states from blue to red.
Guess what? It’s not happening this year because conservative voters, no matter how they feel about Joe, are solidly behind Trump and their numbers have already been counted in pre-election polls. Right now in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the Libertarian candidate, Jo Johnson, is polling at 2 percent, the Sedaris dog-shit vote (i.e., people who still don’t know how they are going to vote) is running around 4 percent.
Back in 2016, as late as one week before the actual election, the percentage of voters who said they weren’t ready to vote for either Hillary or Trump ranged from ten to fourteen percent. Right now, the total dog-shit vote, including the folks who say they are still voting for either the Libertarian or the Green candidate, is slightly more than 7 percent.
Want to see how all that enthusiasm for Trump will drive his victory in the swing states? Take a look at the more than 60 ‘events’ listed on the official Trump campaign website, which are described as ‘leadership training events.’ Then read the single, best article yet written on the 2020 campaign by a reporter for New York Magazine, who wandered around some working-class towns in Pennsylvania trying to attend some of those events. To sum up: there were no events.
Trump goes up to New Hampshire on Friday and does a rally that attracts 1,400 adoring fans. Note the empty chairs:
Black Lives Matter and Al Sharpton’s National Action Network brought at least 50,000 people to a rally in D.C. and the NBA owners just announced they will open their stadiums to make it easier and safer for people to come out and vote. Notice the ‘empty’ seats:
I’m actually glad that Michael Moore doesn’t want us to take anything for granted. I agree with him that any lessening of concern for the November outcome would be a huge mistake.
But let’s understand something else. I don’t want the blue team to just squeak through and allow Trump to continue lying about how the election has been ‘rigged.’ I want his rear end to be really kicked in. In other words, vote early and vote often, thanks again Al Capone.