Will The Senate Turn Blue On November 4th?

              Want the good news? Yesterday while Trump was telling his minions in North Carolina that he had done more for them than any living or dead person had ever done for them since Jesus Christ, the national aggregate polls notched up slightly for Joe and so did the state-level polls in the Tar Heel state. The polls have also widened in the three states – MI, PA, WI – whose electoral votes combined with the Communist/Fascist/Socialist/ I-don’t-know-what-ist states give Joe what he needs.

              That’s the good news. Now here’s the not-so-good news. The Democrats need to flip 4 Senate seats and not lose any states in order to control the Upper House. They don’t seem to be losing any of their current seats, but all of a sudden their ability to grab 4 GOP seats may be in doubt.

              Here’ how it looks today:

              We still have a strong lead in Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina but Montana, which was trending slightly blue when we last checked the polls back on August 24th, is now trending slightly red.  And Iowa, incidentally, was always going to be very tight.

              When it comes to voting for President, Montana has been a typical Western (i.e., GOP) state.  On the other hand, in 5 of the last 6 contests for Senate, the Democratic candidate has finished on top. The only election since 2002 where a Montana Senate seat was up for grabs and won by the GOP was in 2014, when the incumbent, Steve Daines, won his first election and now is trying to hold onto his seat.

              Bullock has been a stalwart Trump supporter in a state that didn’t register many Covid-19 cases until mid-July.  But every day the Montana media is now reporting 100 or more cases statewide, in a state with just slightly over 1 million residents, which makes the pandemic big and scary news. If the virus continues to increase to increase in Montana the way it is beginning to spread in other Western states, the Senate race in Montana might become a plebiscite on how Trump has handled the disease. If not, perhaps not.

              I happen to think that regaining the Senate majority is more important for the blue team than getting someone to move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year.  When your party controls both Houses of Congress you can impeach the President whenever you want. And even though the latest news about how the Postmaster General appears to be nothing more than yet another crook who has latched onto Trump, there’s something to be said about the authority of the legislative branch when all the leaves on the tree are colored blue.

              This week we get Michael Cohen’s book and next week we get Bob Woodward’s account. The early excerpts from Woodward’s book are out there and of course what he tells us is what we already know, namely that we have a President who conduct is false and destructive in every respect.

              But are these books going to be read by enough residents in Montana to swing the election back to the blue team? Are these books going to change the mind of one, single individual who has decided that for better or worse, he or she is sticking with Trump?

              I’m not sure if I could give a correct response to either question. All I know is that every day I put my money where my mouth is so here’s where I just spent a little time and left some cash behind: https://stevebullock.com/.

Trump’s Numbers Are Going From Bad To Worse

              Back in 1937 they held a special election in the 10th Congressional District of Texas which at that time covered Austin and much of the hill country that covers the South-Central part of the state. The Hill Country includes Gillespie County, and smack dab in the middle of the county is a town called Stonewall, which right now has around 500 residents, which has always been more or less the population of that place.

              One of the families that lived in Stonewall was the Johnson family. They had a boy named Lyndon who was a high school teacher, then borrowed some money from his wife’s family and got himself into the 10th CD race. The seat was open because the long-time Congressman, ‘Bucky’ Buchannon, had dropped dead in February. In those days, the only way that a Texas Congressman lost his seat in the House of Representatives was if he dropped dead.

              So here was ol’ Lyndon trying for the first time to get himself out of the dust of the Hill Country and make a name for hisself. There was only one problem. A week before the election, ‘ol Lyndon got together behind the Presbyterian Church with his buddies who were helping him out. And one of the assembled group had no choice but to deliver the bad news.

              “Lyndon,” he said to ol’ Lyndon, “you losin’ an’ you losin’ bad. If we don’ figure out sumpin’ that will get you ahead of that feller who’s beatin’ you, y’all goin’ t’be back teachin’ school agin.”

              There was silence. Nobody knew what to do. That is until ol’ Lyndon raised his head, smiled and said, “I got it! We’ll spread the rumor that he f**ks pigs!”

              “Awww Lyndon,” said one of his friends, “you know he don’t do that.”

              “Yea.” replied Lyndon, smiling and nodding his head up and down, “but we’ll get him to deny it.”

              As promised, here are the weekly stats on how Biden and Trump match up in the crucial swing states. And if the numbers continue to change the way they have changed in the last week, the only thing that Trump can do to reverse his disappearing campaign is to spread some kind of ‘he f**ks pigs’ around about ol’ Joe.

              What the Hell, it worked for ol’ Lyndon back in ’37 (that story was often retold by LBJ himself) so maybe it’ll work again. They’ve tried just about everything else, including that Joe’s demented, that he made corrupt deals for his son Hunter in China and the Ukraine. Why not spread the rumor that he f**ks pigs?

              That being said, here are the swing-state numbers as of today:

Note that Joe is now at or almost at the magic 50-mark in three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Last week he hadn’t yet hit any state at the 50-point mark. Note that Trump is slightly ahead in Iowa and they are basically tied in Texas. Last week, Trump was ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Arkansas. Note that Joe has pulled slightly ahead in Ohio. In other words, Joe has improved his numbers in just about every swing state and he’s ahead in 9 out of 12 swing states. Last week he was ahead in 6 out of 12 swing states.

But here’s the more important news. There is not one single swing state which still has a dog-shit (undecided) number above 9, and in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona, the dog-shit number is down to 6. If the dog-shit vote were to split evenly and nothing else were to change, joe would wind up with 135 additional electoral votes, which would give him 332 EV’s on election day.

Today Trump goes to Dallas for a meeting with some Black church and community leaders to talk about improving relations between the cops and the local folks. The discussion is being called (by the White House) “Transition to Greatness: Restoring, Rebuilding and Renewing.” Neither the DA, the sheriff or the police chief are planning to attend.

Hey, wait a minute. I thought we already were great. I thought that all we needed to do now was keep ourselves great. Frankly, I think Trump stands a better chance of reversing his political collapse if he spends less time talking about being great or becoming great and concentrates instead on whether or not Joe f**ks pigs.