Will The Senate Turn Blue On November 4th?

              Want the good news? Yesterday while Trump was telling his minions in North Carolina that he had done more for them than any living or dead person had ever done for them since Jesus Christ, the national aggregate polls notched up slightly for Joe and so did the state-level polls in the Tar Heel state. The polls have also widened in the three states – MI, PA, WI – whose electoral votes combined with the Communist/Fascist/Socialist/ I-don’t-know-what-ist states give Joe what he needs.

              That’s the good news. Now here’s the not-so-good news. The Democrats need to flip 4 Senate seats and not lose any states in order to control the Upper House. They don’t seem to be losing any of their current seats, but all of a sudden their ability to grab 4 GOP seats may be in doubt.

              Here’ how it looks today:

              We still have a strong lead in Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina but Montana, which was trending slightly blue when we last checked the polls back on August 24th, is now trending slightly red.  And Iowa, incidentally, was always going to be very tight.

              When it comes to voting for President, Montana has been a typical Western (i.e., GOP) state.  On the other hand, in 5 of the last 6 contests for Senate, the Democratic candidate has finished on top. The only election since 2002 where a Montana Senate seat was up for grabs and won by the GOP was in 2014, when the incumbent, Steve Daines, won his first election and now is trying to hold onto his seat.

              Bullock has been a stalwart Trump supporter in a state that didn’t register many Covid-19 cases until mid-July.  But every day the Montana media is now reporting 100 or more cases statewide, in a state with just slightly over 1 million residents, which makes the pandemic big and scary news. If the virus continues to increase to increase in Montana the way it is beginning to spread in other Western states, the Senate race in Montana might become a plebiscite on how Trump has handled the disease. If not, perhaps not.

              I happen to think that regaining the Senate majority is more important for the blue team than getting someone to move into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year.  When your party controls both Houses of Congress you can impeach the President whenever you want. And even though the latest news about how the Postmaster General appears to be nothing more than yet another crook who has latched onto Trump, there’s something to be said about the authority of the legislative branch when all the leaves on the tree are colored blue.

              This week we get Michael Cohen’s book and next week we get Bob Woodward’s account. The early excerpts from Woodward’s book are out there and of course what he tells us is what we already know, namely that we have a President who conduct is false and destructive in every respect.

              But are these books going to be read by enough residents in Montana to swing the election back to the blue team? Are these books going to change the mind of one, single individual who has decided that for better or worse, he or she is sticking with Trump?

              I’m not sure if I could give a correct response to either question. All I know is that every day I put my money where my mouth is so here’s where I just spent a little time and left some cash behind: https://stevebullock.com/.