Weekly In-Play State Polls: Trump Keeps Rolling Along – Nowhere.

              Next week and the week after that, I’m going to skip publishing a report on how the polls look in the in-play states for the simple reason that I don’t trust any poll about anything conducted the last week of August when everyone is thinking about resuming whatever they are planning to resume after Labor Day. And the fact that the situation in schools is still unclear only makes what people will be thinking about next week even more difficult to understand.

              So our next report will appear on Monday, September 7th, which will not only be Labor Day so whatever you needed to do before Labor Day is either done or not done; plus, the polls beginning in September will also take into account the ‘bounce’ that candidates get from their conventions, which start this week.

              That being said, the poll results currently show Joe increasing his lead bit-by-bit in the in-play states, with the current numbers looking like this:

              Note that Joe is at or near 50% in 7 seven states; last week it was 1 state. Note he has hit the 50% in 3 states, last week it was 1 state. Joe’s overall average in the 12 in-play states is 48.4, our wartime President’s average is 44.8. Joe has pulled even or slightly ahead in Ohio, he’s 2 points behind in Texas, 1.4 points behind in Iowa – he doesn’t need either state. Assuming Joe wins all the Communist states, he only needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to put him and Kam over the top. Except for Pennsylvania, where’s he’s 6 points ahead, Joe’s ahead by 8 points in the other 3 must-win states.

              Joe’s even up by a point in North Carolina, which a month ago, nobody thought he could win. But maybe an 8-point lead at this moment doesn’t mean that Joe is ahead. Last week our Commander-in-Chief told the sycophantic New York Post that because of crime and high taxes, his campaign was going to put New York “into play.” After my sister tipped me off to this loony statement I checked the polls and Trump is only behind in New York by 25 points – 63% to 38%. New York’ in play – yea, right.

              Now here’s the real news. For the 12 in-play states, the Sedaris Dog-shit vote is now down to an average of 7.8.  In New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, it’s down to 5.5. In those two states, every, single voter could make up their minds to vote for Trump between now and November 3rd, and he still couldn’t win. The dog-shit vote in Michigan and Wisconsin is somewhat larger, but unless 90% of the dog shits went for Mister Dog Shit himself, he couldn’t carry either of those states on November 3rd.

              Incidentally, with the exception of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all have no-excuse, absentee voting. In other words, voting by mail. Now you know why Trump is making those claims about mail-in voting equals voting fraud. I love how he is now blaming Amazon for financial losses suffered by the Post Office; pretty soon he’ll be claiming that Amazon is also spreading the virus into all 50 states.

              I can’t recall one, single day in the last 3 ½ years when Trump didn’t blame someone for something. And if this guy thinks that blaming anyone other than himself for not taking the Cobvid-19 virus seriously, is what a ‘wartime President’ does when the country is under attack, then all I can say is that he wouldn’t know how to be a ‘wartime leader’ any better than he knew how to run an airline or start a new football league.

              The only problem with any political poll is what w call the ‘black swan’ effect, namely, that no matter how many times we think we know how people are going to do something, there’s always a chance they’ll do it differently the next time out.

              Which is why good poll news to the contrary, just remember what Al Capone said: Vote Early, Vote Often.

Update On Swing-State Presidential Polls.

              I’m sick and tired of Covid-19 and I’m just as sick and tired of Donald Trump. Unfortunately, to bring the former problem under control, we really need to get rid of Trump.  The good news on that score, fortunately, is that the latter problem seems to be in the process of being handled by Trump himself. For all the talk about a new campaign direction, a big advertising blitz and of course the huge turnout at the rally at his Bedminster club, the bottom line is that the poll numbers have remained remarkably steady over the last week.

              First the aggregate number. On July 22nd, Joe dropped down underneath 50% for the first time since June 12th. He just went back over 50% again and his lead is back to 8.3 – 50.1% versus 41.9%.  Trump hasn’t been above 43% since the beginning of June, Biden has been at 48% or above since the beginning of March.

              One more point about the aggregate national poll, if only because every time I think about the polls in 2016 I get spooked. On August 7, 2016 Hillary had a 7.5-point lead over Trump. This date also happened to be when the Democratic National Convention wrapped up. The next day she started to slip and by August 10th her lead had dwindled to less than 6 points. On April 12, Joe had a 3.4-point lead which was at 6 points on May 1st and has never been less than 7.5 points since that day.

              Now let’s look at the crucial swing-state races, where at the moment Joe has 207 electoral votes locked up from the Communist states. Here’s how the current poll numbers from the 12 states whose voters will decide what happens on November 3rd:

              Note that Joe has reached or is about to reach the coveted 50% mark in 5 of the 12 in-play states. Note that he is also tied or leading in 9 of those states. In order to get from the 207 Communist EV’s to the 270 that gets him over the top, Joe only needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and one other state. Even New Hampshire with its 4 measly EV’s gets him where he wants to go.

              On the other hand, our wartime leader can only count right now on 128 EV’s from the red, or what Al Franken used to call, the ‘dumb’ states. So to continue his effort to make American great again, or be a wartime leader, or whatever this made-for-video clown pretends to be, he has to find 142 out of the 189 EV’s that appear to be up for grabs. Right now, he has 1-point leads in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa, which totals 60 EV’s. Trump with a 1-point lead in Texas?

              Here’s the latest attempt by the Trump campaign to throw a life preserver into the water before their candidate sinks out of sight: “three months is a lifetime in politics, the presidency is a powerful platform and Biden will eventually have to face the spotlight of scrutiny.” This is from Howard Kurtz, who used to write about media for the Washington Post, but now spiels for Fox. I love how he says that Biden will have to face scrutiny, as if Trump and his toadies haven’t said something every hour of every day about Joe’s dementia, Joe’s crooked son, Joe’s financial ties to the Chinese thugs, so forth and so on.

              Meanwhile, none of those attacks have seemed to gain Trump-o any traction at all. But that doesn’t mean the election is over and done. Please don’t sit back and take yourself out of the game. Please stay involved.

Where’s The Trump Campaign?

              Last Friday, the President of the United States, a.k.a. Donald Trump, flew down to Florida to meet with a group of cops and get their endorsement for his re-election campaign. The cops are probably the only people in the whole country who are willing to even meet with Trump these days, never mind support his attempt to take another four-year White House lease.

              The picture above is Air Force 1 landing at the Tampa airport and as you can see, there was a large crowd waiting for the nation’s Chief Executive to come bounding down the stairs.

There’s only one little problem.  The above picture is what Trump would have posted on his Twitter except that a photographer got a shot of the entire crowd:

              And here’s a photograph of the thousands of Trump fans who couldn’t squeeze into the airport but were happy and willing to greet their beloved President as he came outside:

              This is how Trump described his trip to Florida in a tweet: ”My visits last week to Texas and Frorida had massive numbers of cheering people gathered along the roads and highways, thousands and thousands, even bigger (by far) than the crowds of 2016. Saw no Biden supporters, and yet some in the Fake News said it was an equal number. Sad!” And don’t think for one second that the way he spelled Florida was a mistake. It’s just another example of how racism (in this case against Asians) permeates his campaign. He really is a POS.

              If the ‘Chinese flu’ had never arrived, right now Trump would be holding one of his Nuremburg-style rallies every day. Instead, he spent the weekend playing golf, something he has done more than 270 times since he was inaugurated in 2017. That’s only an average of one golf outing every five days. Just like Ike. Hey – that’s a new slogan for Trump. Just like Ike.

              Back to the polls. Here’s how the swing-state numbers look today: 

              There really has been no change from last week. Note that Joe has his largest leads in the states where he is at or just about at 50 percent (FL, WI, MI, PA, and NH.)  If he wins those 5 states along with all the Commie-Socialist states, he’s well past 300 electoral votes. So that’s the good news today. And here’s some more good news.

              Back at the end of March when the Democratic primaries were basically finished and done, according to the Federal Election Commission, Biden had $26.3 million on hand, Trump’s campaign was sitting on almost $100 million bucks.  As of June 30, Trump had $113 million in the bank, Joe had $108 million waiting to be spent. Biden raised $63 million in June, Trump raised $55 million, but Trump’s campaign spent $50 million that same month, Joe’s gang spent $36 million and change. When you’re raising less and spending more and your numbers don’t improve, sending out a completely phony tweet about the ‘massive’ crowds in Florida won’t help you one bit.

              Today the Trump bunch resumed their TV advertising campaign by placing an ad in four swing states: AZ, FL, GA, and NC.  They had paused their ads for two weeks so that the new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, could re-evaluate their messaging and come up with a new and more powerful ad. So what’s the message this time around? That Biden is a ‘tool’ of the ‘radical Left’ who will triple your taxes, defund the police, and lead the country down to radical Socialism or worse.

              This advertising blitz doesn’t mention the corona virus, not once. But Trump  mentioned it on Twitter this morning when he criticized his own virus expert, Deborah Birx. I think Trump is smart by pretending that the Covid-19 emergency won’t hurt his campaign. After all, three out of ten Americans still believe that what he says about the virus is true. So if 30% are willing to give this liar and racist MF any kind of credibility at all, add to that group the Sedaris 10% dog-shit vote and maybe you’re still in the game.

              Don’t relax, don’t think it’s done. It’s not done and this is a very serious time.