Now The Campaign Really Begins!

              Okay guys, the Summer’s over on Tuesday and the election gets down to brass tacks.  So here’s where things now stand. 

              As of today, Joe is leading in the aggregate national poll by 50.4% to 43%, numbers for both candidates that have been basically unchanged for the last week. On this same date in 2016, Hillary was at 41.3%, Trump at 39.2%.  Not only was the aggregate poll much closer in 2016 than today, but the all-important Sedaris dog-shit number was 19.5%. Right now the national undecided number is 6.6%. If Trump picks up every, single dog-shit voter between now and November 3rd, he would still lose the popular vote.

              There’s only one little problem.  Trump lost the popular vote by 3% of total votes cast in 2016 and we’ve still been cursed with him for the last 4 years. So let’s drill down and look at the state-level voting, because once again the election will be decided by turnout and voter decisions in a handful of states.

              How small is that handful?  Try three – Michigan, Wisconsin and most important, PA. Here’s how the numbers work out. Joe has 21 states in his pocket which together count for 227 electoral votes. These are the states that voted for Hillary in 2016, and with the exception of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada, Hillary had a double-digit advantage in each of those states. Right now in the three states that went single-digit blue in 2016, Minnesota and Nevada are showing 6+ gaps in favor of Joe, in New Hampshire it’s 8.2%. Only in Nevada is Joe running under 50%.

              The three states whose outcomes will determine whether or not we have Trump around for another four years count 46 electoral votes. Which gets Joe to 273 EV’s. That’s the end of that. Right now, Joe’s ahead in all 3 states – 6.6% in Michigan, 7.2% in Wisconsin and 4.5% in PA.  There’s only one little problem with these numbers, however. At this point in 2016, Hillary was ahead in those three same states. In Michigan, Hillary was up by 5%, in Wisconsin, the gap was 5%, the gap was 9% in PA.

              Right now Joe is leading in those three states by the same margin, more or less, that Hillary enjoyed following Labor Day in 2016. So how did Trump manage to pull it out?

I posted a column back on August 30 which showed that Trump pulled his last-minute surge because Libertarians who had declared themselves for Johnson, decided at the last minute not to waste their vote and switched to Trump. In this year’s pre-election polls, the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, is only getting 2%-3%, which doesn’t give Trump any kind of boost even if every, single Libertarian goes into the booth and votes GOP.

In 2012, Obama got 7,175,828 votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and PA, the total for Hillary in 2016 was 6,577,816. Wow! Blue votes decreased by 8%. If Hillary had received the same number of votes in 2016 that Obama got in 2012, Trump would have spent the last 4 years tweeting to himself.

              Look what happened in PA.  Obama got 2,990,274 votes in 2012, HRC got 2,926,441 votes in 2016. How many votes did Trump get in 2016? Try 2,970,733.  If Hillary had received the exact same number of votes in 2016 that Obama pulled out in 2012, she would have won PA by 82,000 votes. In Michigan, if she had garnered Obama’s 2,564,569 total, she would have swamped Trump instead of losing those all-important 16 EV’s by a pathetic 10,000 votes.

              Trump has lost on re-opening schools; he’s lost the mail-in vote issue as well. We now have a new scandal involving what he said or didn’t say when he went to Europe in 2018. What’s left? Race. And I guarantee he will run the most disgusting, racist campaign of all time.

              Joe was absolutely spot on when he said that you’re not Black if you voted for Trump. Let’s make sure he can say the same thing after November 3rd about voters who are White.


‘Build The Wall’ Is A Perfect Scam. Well, Almost Perfect.

              Why is it that every time someone wants to scam money through some connection to the Trump campaign, they always seem to get started in Florida?  Maybe it’s because Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club is a nice place to meet, I really don’t know. But remember those two Russians, Fruman and Parnas, who are going on trial next year for ‘campaign finance violations,’ which is a polite way of saying that they laundered money through the Trump campaign?

              Now we have another bunch of scammers who were floating Trump’s name around to stuff their pockets with cash. This bunch includes Steve Bannon, the former domestic-policy adviser to the Trump campaign and then to the White House itself, along with a disabled Florida veteran, Brian Kolfage, and a so-called entrepreneur and Bannon buddy, Andy Badolato, both of whom happen to live somewhere around Tampa Bay.

              Badolato is a real piece of work. He’s filed at least 2 personal bankruptcies and has been named as a defendant in at least 23 lawsuits alleging fraud, non-payment for goods and services, the usual stuff. There’s internet talk about child molestation, multiple tax-evasion charges by the Feds, pink-sheet violations, sale of unregistered stock and plenty more.

              This particular scam appears to have been the handiwork of Kolfage, who put up a GoFundMe campaign in December, 2018, to raise money to build a piece of the Mexican wall. Using a controlled website to raise money was the first mistake. Note this statement from the GoFundMe website: “Notwithstanding the foregoing, we take possible fraudulent activity and the misuse of funds raised very seriously.” How long did it take for the Florida Attorney General to get interested in this fundraising campaign? Less than one month after the whole thing started up because the donations amounted to more than $17 million in the first week!

              The problem facing Kolfage right from the git-go was that he didn’t have any way to either use the money for actually building a section of the wall or of holding the money in some kind of legal, escrow account until someone could be found who would build a section of the wall on private land.

              Enter Bannon and Badolato, who evidently took over the entire operation almost from the moment it started and created a not-for-profit corporation which would hold the funds until they were dispersed. Except the monies were actually dispersed into the pockets of Bannon, Badolato and Kolfage to the tune of several million dollars, including covering personal expenses and a $20,000-monthly salary to laundered by Bannon to Kolfage which he never declared. Meanwhile, Kolfage was telling donors both in emails and personal appearances, that every, single penny collected by the campaign was going to be given to contractors who were building the private wall.

              Want to enjoy reading about the details behind this scam?  You can download the indictment right here.

              To his credit, when Trump was asked about the latest indictment of a yet another high-level member of his staff (read: Cohen, Stone, Manafort, Gates, Flynn) he not only denied any connection to the project but said he was against private efforts to build his beloved wall. On the other hand, his idiot son Donnie-boy Junior showed up at a fundraising event held by the group last year and praised the effort as “private enterprise at its finest,” a statement he now claims to no longer believe.

              Meanwhile, yesterday Bannon said that the indictment was an attack on “American sovereignty” and another Deep State scam. Tomorrow morning his lawyer will no doubt start negotiating a plea.

              I just got an email from the publisher of a new book, Disloyal, which says the book will ship on September 8th.  That’s the so-called ‘memoir’ by Michael Cohen. I just pre-ordered the new Woodward tell-all book, Rage, which will ship on September 15th.

              As long as Joe holds his lead in the polls (I’ll have more to say about the polls tomorrow) it’s going to be a fun September even as I continue my self-quarantine.

Weekly In-Play State Polls: Trump Keeps Rolling Along – Nowhere.

              Next week and the week after that, I’m going to skip publishing a report on how the polls look in the in-play states for the simple reason that I don’t trust any poll about anything conducted the last week of August when everyone is thinking about resuming whatever they are planning to resume after Labor Day. And the fact that the situation in schools is still unclear only makes what people will be thinking about next week even more difficult to understand.

              So our next report will appear on Monday, September 7th, which will not only be Labor Day so whatever you needed to do before Labor Day is either done or not done; plus, the polls beginning in September will also take into account the ‘bounce’ that candidates get from their conventions, which start this week.

              That being said, the poll results currently show Joe increasing his lead bit-by-bit in the in-play states, with the current numbers looking like this:

              Note that Joe is at or near 50% in 7 seven states; last week it was 1 state. Note he has hit the 50% in 3 states, last week it was 1 state. Joe’s overall average in the 12 in-play states is 48.4, our wartime President’s average is 44.8. Joe has pulled even or slightly ahead in Ohio, he’s 2 points behind in Texas, 1.4 points behind in Iowa – he doesn’t need either state. Assuming Joe wins all the Communist states, he only needs Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire to put him and Kam over the top. Except for Pennsylvania, where’s he’s 6 points ahead, Joe’s ahead by 8 points in the other 3 must-win states.

              Joe’s even up by a point in North Carolina, which a month ago, nobody thought he could win. But maybe an 8-point lead at this moment doesn’t mean that Joe is ahead. Last week our Commander-in-Chief told the sycophantic New York Post that because of crime and high taxes, his campaign was going to put New York “into play.” After my sister tipped me off to this loony statement I checked the polls and Trump is only behind in New York by 25 points – 63% to 38%. New York’ in play – yea, right.

              Now here’s the real news. For the 12 in-play states, the Sedaris Dog-shit vote is now down to an average of 7.8.  In New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, it’s down to 5.5. In those two states, every, single voter could make up their minds to vote for Trump between now and November 3rd, and he still couldn’t win. The dog-shit vote in Michigan and Wisconsin is somewhat larger, but unless 90% of the dog shits went for Mister Dog Shit himself, he couldn’t carry either of those states on November 3rd.

              Incidentally, with the exception of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all have no-excuse, absentee voting. In other words, voting by mail. Now you know why Trump is making those claims about mail-in voting equals voting fraud. I love how he is now blaming Amazon for financial losses suffered by the Post Office; pretty soon he’ll be claiming that Amazon is also spreading the virus into all 50 states.

              I can’t recall one, single day in the last 3 ½ years when Trump didn’t blame someone for something. And if this guy thinks that blaming anyone other than himself for not taking the Cobvid-19 virus seriously, is what a ‘wartime President’ does when the country is under attack, then all I can say is that he wouldn’t know how to be a ‘wartime leader’ any better than he knew how to run an airline or start a new football league.

              The only problem with any political poll is what w call the ‘black swan’ effect, namely, that no matter how many times we think we know how people are going to do something, there’s always a chance they’ll do it differently the next time out.

              Which is why good poll news to the contrary, just remember what Al Capone said: Vote Early, Vote Often.